There are many traders who still consider options and warrants to be long term trading markets, but options can even be traded short term. It is important to understand that trading options short terms is not dramatically different from trading any other market but there are a couple of options specifics that need to be taken into account. In short term trading, the aptitude to steer the short term market is a key component for continued success. As an equity trader one has to learn to trade with the short trend of the markets to reduce market risk.
An option trading is a strategy that does not depend on the market direction; in fact it does well in volatile markets. With options trading there are two methods through which you can enter a long trade and short terms trade. While a long fundamental trade can be entered either by buying a call or by selling a put, a short underlying trade can be entered either by buying a put or by selling a call.
In short term options trading calculating risk reward is yet another important point that trader need to well aware of. Calculating the risk reward can be defined as the amount trader would risk if he or she were wrong and the amount trader would make if he or she were right. If we don't figure out this number, the chances are more where we may find the stock that may go in favor but the option goes against.
If we compare long term and short term options trading, then both have their own advantages. However, buying short term options can be very beneficial as it gives more control. It very general that no one can exactly make prediction very clearly when it comes to stock trading. It's really hard to predict what will happen to a stock 3 months down the road. Though sometimes it is easier to predict which way the stock will be heading in just a few weeks as opposed to a few months. Thus, selling short term options allow capture more premiums over a longer time frame.
Apart from this, it even works well and provides an excellent way for novice traders to trade. This is because as the price movement is so fast and dynamic that when things happen, beginners may not know what to do and be able to do it quickly. Moreover, it is an enormously lively options trading method where options are bought and sold very quickly in order to gain profit from the least intraday price swing or change in volatility.
Today certainly short term option trading has gained its world-wide popularity. It has become extremely money-making method in the hands of options trading veterans and new comers in current extremely volatile market conditions.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Using Weekly And Monthly Charts To Invest In The Stock Market
A mistake many investors make is that the longest time frame they will look at when it comes to technical analysis is the daily chart. However this chart doesn't always tell the whole story and in a lot of cases it's a lot more profitable to invest in shares based on what the weekly or monthly charts are saying. One of the best set of indicators you can use are the exponential moving averages. I personally like to plot the 5, 20, 50 and 200 period EMAs on my charts because they are extremely useful indicators. They work well on the daily charts but they are even more dependable on the weekly or monthly charts. The key is to look for important EMA crossovers for a change in trend. After you get one of these crossovers you will often see the price continue to move in this direction for several weeks or months before it reverses and crosses in the opposite direction. In the meantime you can bank some significant profits. You can use the EMA (20) crossing the EMA (50) as a good signal but I personally prefer using the EMA (5) crossing the EMA (20) as my preferred signal. As I say this works well on the daily chart alone but when you increase the time frame, you get far bigger price moves. In fact sometimes you can catch a trend that lasts several years and creates substantial profits. You can also use the downwards crossover as either a sell signal or as an opportunity to go short of a stock. For instance if you look at the monthly chart of any of the banks, let's take Royal Bank of Scotland as an example, you will see that the EMA (5) crossed downwards through the EMA (20) in July 2007 and still hasn't crossed back upwards. In this time the share price has fallen from around 600p to just 20p. So obviously a very profitable long-term short position and it's the same with many other companies, not just the banks. If you look at the daily charts, however, you will see that there are a lot more crossovers using the same period EMAs so you don't always capture these big gains using this time frame. If the weekly or monthly chart is too long a time frame to use, then you should use them to identify the longer term trend if nothing else. For instance if the weekly or monthly chart is trending upwards, then you should look for buying opportunities on the daily chart. The point is that you should always have a look at the weekly and monthly charts because they can provide you with some invaluable information (and trading opportunities). The trends on these longer term time frames can last for months, and even years in some cases.
CFD TRADING- Indonesia
Contracts for Difference (are commonly known as a CFD) is a contract between the trader and a CFD TRADER
, who will at the close of the contract, exchange the difference between the opening price and the closing price of the underlying index, share, commodity, per the number of specified CFD contracts.
Stepping away from the technical jargon, a CFD differs from the traditional trading methods in that you aren't purchasing the nominated investment, but trading on its speculated price movement. The main idea of CFDs is the ability to be able to trade higher volumes than traditional trading whilst using less initial capital.
The buyer is of the contracts is required to pay commission to enter the contract, plus fixed interest on the remaining value of the borrowed amount, until they decide to end the contract, at which time they are paid the price difference. The buyer may opt on either side high (buy) or the low (sell), meaning if the contract was a low trade the buyer can still turn a profit it that was the initial investment.
The key distinction between traditional share buying and CFD buying is that buying a CFD is done on leverage (typically between 5%-35% for actively trade stocks), both share and CFDs participate in all corporate action, both buyers receive dividends but only the buyer of the share is able to vote and receive the franking credits. With CFDs you don't get these rights. The CFD seller is able to go low (sell) with ease.
This makes CFDs an excellent trading product. The leverage and ability to short sell gives trades dollar power and flexibility.
Unlike futures CFDs do not have an expiry date (you can hold as long or as short as you desire).
With CFDs you can open up a whole new trading world, with the ability to trade shares, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities.
Not only can you trade Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) listed shares but you have access to world wide markets, such as the United States (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P), United Kingdom (FTSE), Japan (NEIKKI), Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and many other countries.
This is why CFDs are the flexible new way to trade. To find out more on CFDs feel free to visit the CFD FX REPORT
who offer education lessons, can help you find the best CFD Trader in market
, who will at the close of the contract, exchange the difference between the opening price and the closing price of the underlying index, share, commodity, per the number of specified CFD contracts.
Stepping away from the technical jargon, a CFD differs from the traditional trading methods in that you aren't purchasing the nominated investment, but trading on its speculated price movement. The main idea of CFDs is the ability to be able to trade higher volumes than traditional trading whilst using less initial capital.
The buyer is of the contracts is required to pay commission to enter the contract, plus fixed interest on the remaining value of the borrowed amount, until they decide to end the contract, at which time they are paid the price difference. The buyer may opt on either side high (buy) or the low (sell), meaning if the contract was a low trade the buyer can still turn a profit it that was the initial investment.
The key distinction between traditional share buying and CFD buying is that buying a CFD is done on leverage (typically between 5%-35% for actively trade stocks), both share and CFDs participate in all corporate action, both buyers receive dividends but only the buyer of the share is able to vote and receive the franking credits. With CFDs you don't get these rights. The CFD seller is able to go low (sell) with ease.
This makes CFDs an excellent trading product. The leverage and ability to short sell gives trades dollar power and flexibility.
Unlike futures CFDs do not have an expiry date (you can hold as long or as short as you desire).
With CFDs you can open up a whole new trading world, with the ability to trade shares, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities.
Not only can you trade Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) listed shares but you have access to world wide markets, such as the United States (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P), United Kingdom (FTSE), Japan (NEIKKI), Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and many other countries.
This is why CFDs are the flexible new way to trade. To find out more on CFDs feel free to visit the CFD FX REPORT
who offer education lessons, can help you find the best CFD Trader in market
Forex Trading: Technical Analysis
Making decisions about forex trading strategies can be made a little easier when you have a method of analysis that can help you determine likely movements on the FX market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are the two main ways to analyze what you see happening on the foreign currency exchange. Technical analysis is mostly concerned with forex charts, however, and price action.
Technical analysis is mainly about looking at forex trading charts and making decisions based on the trends seen in the price. While some may look to a few outside factors that affect the foreign currency exchange, for the most part technical analysis is almost exclusively concerned with what is going on with the pure numbers that represent the exchange rate.
For the most part, a good FX trading platform will allow you access to forex charts so that you can see exactly what is happening. By looking at price trends over a set period of time (anywhere from hours to months), it is possible to get a feel for what a foreign currency may do next on the forex market. There are even different techniques to help you interpret what you are seeing and make your currency trading decisions.
There are primers that go into detail about different ways to read forex trading charts, and how you can use different methods to analyze the data. The two main methods, though, are Fibonacci and Elliott Wave. Both of these technical analysis tools require a bit of study to learn the knack of it. Luckily, it is likely that your forex trading platform has tools to help you make use of these types of technical analysis. (The forex platform from Deutsche Bank, dbFX, offers a number of technical analysis tools, including Fibonacci.)
While technical analysis can be very helpful, and while many forex traders (especially those interested in the short term) use technical analysis exclusively when developing forex strategies, it is important to remember that there are limitations. The FX market is volatile, and it is possible that sudden movements that defy usual analysis on forex charts can result in losses
Forex Trading on Margin
One of the advantages of trading on the forex market is that you can trade on margin. When engaging in forex currency trading, it is possible to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital. Nearly all forex brokers, including dbFX, allow clients to do their FX trading on margin. However, it is important to realize that currency trading on margin can increase your risk of loss. Margin foreign exchange trading can mean bigger profits; however, with bigger profits in any investment, you run the risk of greater losses.
Margin trading allows you to leverage your capital into a larger position. Basically, forex brokers – including dbFX, which operates using a margin forex trading platform – lend their clients money so that they can control a larger position than they have the capital for. In forex trading, positions (called lots) are in chunks of 100,000 units of the base currency. Most people do not have $100,000 at their disposal in order to control such a large position. Using margin to leverage their capital, however, allows them to take $2,500 or $1,000 (or less) and control a large lot size.
Because lot sizes are so large, and because the foreign currency market is so volatile, a great deal of money can be made with each position. This allows the clients to make enough money to cover the margin used to trade forex. The flip side, though, is that if gains are magnified by the leverage use in currency trading, so are the losses.
Some forex brokers offer margin calculation services to help you keep track of how much of your account balance is available for new positions. With dbFX, which is owned by Deutsche Bank, it is possible to automatically see where you stand. This is very useful, since it can reduce the chances that you will over extend yourself. It is important to realize that margin forex trading can be devastating in some cases. Some forex brokers offer a 400:1 margin, but it is possible to select a 100:1 or 50:1 margin that is less risky. Your profit will be smaller, but so will your chance of a large loss.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
The Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits
Some traders prefer the monthly, weekly or daily trade forex strategy. Others consider that the best forex strategy is the intraday trading, and probably none of them is the absolute best.
In reality, there can be profits in any forex strategy as long as you are well aware of the market movers and signals at any given time, and you have a clear understanding of all the elements that support your forex strategy.
Some traders base their forex strategy in long term investments (monthly or weekly positions), while others will build their forex strategy around daily or intradaily positions that might be open no longer than a few hours or even minutes (this traders are known as scalpers).
A long term forex strategy will probably earn you 100 or 200 pips in one trade, but that is probably all you will gain within a month or a week if your forex strategy gravitates around monthly or weekly positions, But on the other hand, a well carried scalping forex strategy can deliver many little 10 or 20 pip trades during a day, meaning that maybe you can total anything between 80 to 160 pips in one day using this forex strategy.
The intraday forex strategy benefits from the fact that the forex market, whether moving up or down within any particular currency pair, will always make small fluctuations that you can profit from using an intraday forex strategy.
Which forex strategy is best for you will depend greatly on your personal investment and risk management style, and also on how much time you can dedicate during the day in order to follow the market trends and spot the right entry points for a profitable trade.
I prefer the intraday forex strategy because of its profitability and because frankly I have some time to spare, but mostly because I have the assistance of a software I discovered a while ago, which places trades by itself based on the market trends occurring both during the day an during the night.
So even when if am not in front of my pc, I can go on trading all day and all night, profiting from of every little window of opportunity to scalp a few pips out of the market. With this approach, my intraday forex strategy delivers about 120 pips daily, which in my particular case means I earn about $3,000 per month with a 5,000 investment.
So the intraday forex strategy can indeed be the most profitable one, but it will demand that you stay very attentive at what is going on within the market on a minute by minute basis, unless of course you have a software that stays on guard while you are busy with your job or anything else that might keep you from continuously analyzing the market trends.
If you are wondering about the software I use to help me with my intraday forex strategy, I will only tell you that it does work and that its called the FAPS.
In reality, there can be profits in any forex strategy as long as you are well aware of the market movers and signals at any given time, and you have a clear understanding of all the elements that support your forex strategy.
Some traders base their forex strategy in long term investments (monthly or weekly positions), while others will build their forex strategy around daily or intradaily positions that might be open no longer than a few hours or even minutes (this traders are known as scalpers).
A long term forex strategy will probably earn you 100 or 200 pips in one trade, but that is probably all you will gain within a month or a week if your forex strategy gravitates around monthly or weekly positions, But on the other hand, a well carried scalping forex strategy can deliver many little 10 or 20 pip trades during a day, meaning that maybe you can total anything between 80 to 160 pips in one day using this forex strategy.
The intraday forex strategy benefits from the fact that the forex market, whether moving up or down within any particular currency pair, will always make small fluctuations that you can profit from using an intraday forex strategy.
Which forex strategy is best for you will depend greatly on your personal investment and risk management style, and also on how much time you can dedicate during the day in order to follow the market trends and spot the right entry points for a profitable trade.
I prefer the intraday forex strategy because of its profitability and because frankly I have some time to spare, but mostly because I have the assistance of a software I discovered a while ago, which places trades by itself based on the market trends occurring both during the day an during the night.
So even when if am not in front of my pc, I can go on trading all day and all night, profiting from of every little window of opportunity to scalp a few pips out of the market. With this approach, my intraday forex strategy delivers about 120 pips daily, which in my particular case means I earn about $3,000 per month with a 5,000 investment.
So the intraday forex strategy can indeed be the most profitable one, but it will demand that you stay very attentive at what is going on within the market on a minute by minute basis, unless of course you have a software that stays on guard while you are busy with your job or anything else that might keep you from continuously analyzing the market trends.
If you are wondering about the software I use to help me with my intraday forex strategy, I will only tell you that it does work and that its called the FAPS.
Successful Forex Rading System
Forex trading system is the subsystem of the forex trading plan which governs when and at which price you open and close your trades. A trading system works on the signals given by technical analysis and/or fundamental analysis. The signals are taken to see if the trader should buy or sell a specific currency pair or must close the open position(s). Any currency trading system prevents information overload by filtering out the universe of technical and/or fundamental signals in such a way that only the most reliable (successful in the past) signals or signal combinations are acted upon.
There are two kinds of trading systems - the discretionary and the mechanical. Discretionary trading systems expect the trader to use his or her own judgement to ascertain the importance of each of the technical or fundamental signals (whose number is potentially infinite) that he or she gets. Mechanical trading systems operate on a fixed number of technical or fundamental signals without the participation of the trader. Discretionary trading systems require the perpetual application of creativity (flexibility of approach) from the trader in the understanding of the changing market conditions. Mechanical trading systems require the creativity from the trader only in the forex system development phase.
Discretionary forex trading systems are best employed by professional forex traders with a lot of experience (internalized practical market knowledge) against which they can determine the validity of any signal that they receive. These traders usually remember a large number of various signal patterns from the past (just like the master chessmen) that they can compare to the current market conditions, to make their analysis more objective. In essence, they use themselves (i.e. their brain) as their trading system - often very successfully - because human mind has the best pattern recognition power on the planet.
Starting currency traders are advised to begin by following professionally created mechanical forex trading systems. Most of these systems are sold-out in the form of the forex signals that are usually developed by experienced traders who have found a way to systemize their knowledge of the markets into a working strategy. At the same time, the beginning traders can work on building their own knowledge base of the forex market through the quality forex books, educational courses, bank reports and newswires on this subject -so that they can too, with time, create mechanical trading systems from their own insights and intuitions (using the forex charting packages which allow to do this).
Beginning without a proven mechanical forex trading system (that has positive mathematical expectation) drastically dilutes the chances of maintaining the capital. This is because any intuition or a hunch that the traders experience as a result of some newly gained knowledge of the forex market is likely to be overridden by one of the two emotional derivatives of their life-long programming towards the money - the greed and the fear. In other words, without exact adherence to an existing mechanical trading system the beginning trader will eventually succumb to his or her emotions. As a matter of fact, the only way the traders can acquire discipline in the early phases of their trading careers is by tight following the signals generated by a proven mechanical forex trading system.
Note: Neural Network Packages (e.g. NeuroShell) emulate the process of human learning and can be used to accumualte the knowledge of the past technical and/or fundamental signal patterns (just like the mind of professional forex traders does) for the purpose of the future currency price forecasting.
Quote: "A mechanical approach to the markets can be successful and this is backed up by the fact that approximately 80% of the $30 billion in the managed futures industry is traded by exact systematic methods", from the "The Ultimate Trading Guide" by John R. Hill, George Pruitt, and Lundy Hill.
2.2. Components of a Forex Trading System.
A regular forex trading system consists of two subsystems - the entry system and the exit system. These systems can operate on a different or the same set of inputs. The inputs can be technical or fundamental signals.A system consists of a number of rules which interpret the signals that it receives. The entry system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the positions should be opened. The exit system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the open positions should be closed.
The propose of an entry system is to find market points which allow to open positions with high potential reward and low potential risk (high reward-to-risk ratio). The risk is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying opposite to the entry direction (above entry for sell and below entry for buy). The reward is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying in the direction of the entry (above entry for buy and below entry for sell). It is generally advised that the traders accept only the trades with the reward-to-risk ratio of over 2 (e.g. risk=60 pips, reward=130 pips). All the same, depending on the accuracy of a trading system (i.e. the percentage of the winning trades of all the past trades) this requirement might be shifted to a lower or a higher value without sacrificing the profitability of the system. This is because the true measure of the long term profitability of a forex trading system is neither the average per-trade reward-to-risk ratio nor the accuracy of the system but the combination of these two measures which is calculated as the mathematical expectation of a trading system. In the absence of the accuracy measure of a trading system (as is the case with some discretionary trading systems) - the trader ought strive to find entries with the greatest possible reward-to-risk ratio.
Note: Elliott wave analysis allows to find entries with extremely high reward-to-risk ratios (e.g. just check some of reports on MTPredictor's site). It is worth noting that MTPredictor automatically calculates the reward-to-risk ratios and helps to find optimum entry points based on these ratios. Some Elliot wave software developers (e.g. Advanced Get) also supply their subscribers with detailed Elliott wave trading plans.
The aim of an exit system is to protect the capital base and the unrealized profits. The capital base is shielded by ensuring that the trades are exited with a fixed loss when the reasons for holding them are no longer valid. This is done by triggering a stop-loss order on your forex brokerage account when the price crosses the level which defined your risk at the entry. If you are a discretionary trader, forcing yourself to place the slop-loss on each trade and to stick to it no matter what will make you very selective about your entries - which ought increase your profitability. The unrealized profits are protected either by a take-profit order which is triggered on your brokerage account when the price reaches the level which defined your profit at the entry or with the help of the trailing stop-loss which gradually locks in more profits as the price moves in your favour. In fact, the trailing stop-loss exit can be more suitable than the fixed take-profit exit if you wish to profit from the extending "character" of some impulse waves. In such a event the trailing stop-loss can be placed just a few pips opposite to the trendline which defines impulse wave. There is one more type of exit which can be used to protect the trader from missing trading opportunities - the time exit. A time exit is triggered if a trade hasn't reached either its stop-loss or take-profit level in the specified period of time. Exiting such trades reduces the chances that the capital will be tied up when better opportunities appear on the other currency pairs.
Note: Most forex newswires (e.g. Marketnews) are a great source of real-time information on the location of the major support and resistance levels and clusters of large orders that are watched by professional forex traders and which can be used to manually update the position of your trailing stop-loss.
2.3. Development of a Currency Trading System.
Making a mechanical forex trading system involves a number of steps: 1) Selecting the inputs for the trading system - technical analysis or fundamental analysis tools which will generate the signals for the system; 2) Developing the rule-set which will operate on these signals; 3) Optimizing the parameters of the analysis tools used to produce the signals; 4) Backtesting and forwardtesting the system over historical price data. Each of these steps is covered in more detail below:
2.3.1. Selecting the Inputs for the Trading System
It is important to base your selection of inputs to the system on a sensible premise about the way the currency markets operate. As an example, you can use 200-day moving average to determine if the market is in a long-term up or down trend because a large proportion of professional forex traders use this technical tool to measure market trendiness. It is also better to combine technical analysis tools of different type and scale because this increases the chances of finding high-probability entry points (those that are likely to be followed by sharp currency price moves in your favour), which should, in turn, contribute to the overall system accuracy.
If you use technical tools only on the higher time-frame charts like the daily or the weekly charts this will increase the duration of the trades and the time periods out of the market - because the signals will take longer to form. Either of these outcomes can have detrimental impact on the trader and investor morale during the inevitable losing streaks as is shown by our forex trading simulator (Please note: The size of this page is 0,6 Mbs and it requires that you have Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your browser). which can last longer than they are naturally prepared to wait. This makes it important to focus on lower time-frame charts (e.g. hourly charts) for signal generation which will lead to shorter trade durations and, consequently, to quicker recoveries from the drawdowns. Shorter trade durations can also help to the trader to defeat the temptation to overtrade because he or she can expect to see the next entry signal in the next couple of days - not in the next couple of weeks.
Quote: "Your freedom to choose your time-frame is too valuable to lose. Investors and margined speculators, on the other hand, can choose their own time-frames. This is one of their positional advantages, to use a favourite notion of Larry Hite* , one of the founders of Mint Investment Corp* - one of the largest of the futures fund operators. Investors and speculators can choose. Obviously it makes sense to choose time frames which match any natural rhythms that can be discerned in the currency markets." John Percival in his book "The Way of the Dollar".
Note: If you are using the Elliott Wave analysis your average holding period will depend on the degree of the impulse or corrective waves that you are trading.
Choosing which fundamental factors are best for your forex trading system (e.g. as inputs to your neural network) can be very hard because the effect of various economic indicators on the currency prices changes with time. In other words, the strength of correlation between the price of a currency pair and the fundamental factors relevant to it is not fixed (even with interest rate differentials). In contrast, the relationship between the price patterns (especially the classical price patterns) and trader psychology (the driving force behind most important price moves) remains fairly stable over the years. This is the reason why the forex traders are encouraged to dedicate most of their efforts to building trading systems around the technical analysis.
Another all-important question is the time horizon of the prediction that the trader is trying to make with his system. Better not to try to forecast currency prices too far into the future. This is because the number and the complexity of interaction of various technical and fundamental factors rises geometrically with each trading day. It is, therefore, best to "leave" this task to high-end investment banks and houses which alone have the capacity to perform the necessary calculations inherent in longer-term currency course forecasting. It is more practical for the typical currency trader to concentrate on capturing the so-called "knee-jerk" market reactions driven by crowd emotionalism through the analysis of the current technical or fundamental conditions.
Quote: "Rule 5: Be prepared for anything don't try to predict what will happen or when. Investing is a skill, not a science. The Zen swordsman dicsniplines body and mind to counter any blow spontaneously; he does not anticipate the moves of an opponent, for that impedes his ability to react. Likewise, professional investors know they cannot control the real estate or stock market, let alone the global economy. Instead, they train themselves to be financially intelligent, to think confidently and creatively when opportunities or problems arise." one of the The Seven Rules of Investing given in Robert Kiyosaki's book "You Can Choose to Be Rich".
You should also try not to include too many indicators (over 12) in your forex trading system. This is because probability that the system will perform like it did in the past diminishes as you add more indicators to your system. As a rule, the larger the number of indicators in your system the longer the period of historical currency price data you need to backtest the system on.
Note: There is no necessity to learn all the available indicators and technical analysis methods before you can start creating your own robust trading systems. It is usually enough to master just a few "basic" technical indicators and formations to start combining them to identify high probability entry and exit points. The fundamental and technical reports issues by the investment banks are one of the best sources of information on which technical and/or fundamental signals are watched by the professional trading community that you can include in your forex trading system. In the long run it is best to stick to a sound forex trading strategy, that has high probability of being profitable in the long-run, than to dissipate your capital among a variety of "promising" methods.
2.3.2. Developing the Rule-Set which will Operate on the Signals
You can create these rules based on your observation of how the prices move in relation to various technical and fundamental indicators. For example, you might notice that currency prices tend to resume trending behaviour after they correct toward and touch 200-day moving average. You can use this observance to formulate a rule which will enter the markets when the prices bounce off from the 200-day moving average. You could also notice that the prices tend to stop trending when they touch the outer daily Bollinger bands. You can use this information to create a rule which will exit the trades once the prices penetrate the outer daily Bollinger Band. Because making rule-sets for mechanical trading systems forces you to quantify your insights about the market this practice aids to clarify them.
The rule-set of a forex trading system is in essence the clarified version of the weighing algorithms that you naturally create in your mind as you learn the technical and fundamental analysis and observe the price action. I say "weighing" because most of the technical rules are transcribed in your mind as fuzzy patterns (e.g. "The longer the shadows of a doji the more likely the reversal" or "The steeper the trendline - the more bullish or bearish the market sentiment."). When you make the trading system, you transfer your knowledge to the computer in the form that can be understood by it. Admittedly, the quality of the computerized model very often will fall short of the actual mental model that you keep in your head. Nevertheless, the real advantage of the "mechanicizing" your market knowledge is the power to objectively determine the validity of your trading ideas by the process of the backtesting. It should be noted that the closest the computers approach to simulating the complexity of human comprehension of the market patterns is in the neural network packages.
Neural network packages can be especially effective if you wish to model your way of weighing the strength of support or resistance levels. For example, if you believe that fibonacci retracements are more reliable entry points if they are confirmed by reversal candlestick patterns and/or RSI divergence you can "ask" a neural network to search for past occurrences of this pattern combination and determine the actual numeric weight that should be placed on each of these technical signals for the entry or exit to occur. This process is very advantageous because it allows the computer to extend your natural pattern recognition ability by perfecting (or objectifying) the weights associated with each technical input/signal. This way you can objectively measure the strength or the beauty of the technical setups that you encounter in your trading (e.g. the resultant model might require the position to be opened if the total sum of signal weighs is bigger than 0,5 where a reversal candlestick signal is "worth" 0,15, fibonacci retracement is "worth" 0,3 and the RSI divergence is "worth" 0,45). In essence, your forex trading system is the description of how beautiful your trading setups should be, where "beauty" is defined as the convergence of confirming signals from different type and/or scale technical analysis tools. Advanced users of the neural networks can go even further by tying the position size (within the maximum percentage value set by their money management system) to the strength or the beauty of the technical setup. If done decently this practice will allow them to make the most of the best trading opportunities while simultaneously reducing the exposure on the less promising setups.
Meta4: An fascinating parallel to weighing the signals in order to determine if the position should be taken or not is the way people fall in love. Each individual carries a certain number of unconscious or semi-conscious qualifiers that "describe" in more or less fuzzy terms the appearance, the character, the temperament of their likely mate. When you meet the person who posses enough of these traits (i.e. above some "threshold" or unconscious minimum) the cascade of the confirming signals sets your mind off into the love state. A similar process occurs in the mind of discretionary trader when the market action through all of its technical and/or fundamental signals (i.e. "when all the pieces fit") activates the hunch or intuition response from him or her. If you compare the brain of a discretionary trader to a neural network the hunch finds its direct expression in the output neuron. The similarity between the process of falling in love and experiencing a hunch is probably behind such market advices as "do not marry your trades" or "do not fall in love with your trades". To stretch the similarity further we can compare a stop-loss order to the practice employed by some of the married couples called the "boundary". The boundary is the some form of behaviour unacceptable to the other spouse which if violated will lead to the end of relationship. Yet another analogue is between adding to a losing position and trying to win a favour of an unloving partner - the more you invest the harder it is to let go and the more likely you are to end up destroyed financially (emotionally in the relationships). As a final comparison the neural networks allow to model the connections among the ideas in the human mind in a similar way that a website through all its external and internal links permits to express the specific mental idea-network of its creator.
Quote: "I use all forms of technical analysis, but interpret them through gut feel. I do not believe in mathematical systems that always approach markets in the same way. Using myself as the "system," I constantly change the input to achieve the same output—profit!", Mark Weinstein in Jack D. Schwager's book "Market Wizards".
Note: It should be marked that the effectiveness of your model will always be only as good as the inputs that you give or "feed" to it (as someone said - "Garbage in, garbage out"). This is because computers merely extend your pattern recognition ability and cannot be relied upon to think up a winning system on their own - if this was false, the markets would have been cornered long ago by the guy with the most powerful computer.
2.3.3. Optimizing the Parameters of the Analysis Tools used to Produce the Signals
Some forex charting packages (e.g. TradeStation) permit to optimize the parameters of the technical indicators that you use in your forex trading system. Optimization allows to find parameter values of your indicators that result in the biggest profit (most frequently used measure of system performance in optimization) from the trading system over the past data. An good example of the optimization is looking for the best time-period parameters for a two-moving-averages crossover system. Commonly the periods of two moving averages are stepped from 1 to 50 in steps of 1 and the trading results for each of around 250 moving average combinations are recorded and then sorted to find the most profitable combination. Such process of going though all possible parameter combinations is called brute force optimization. As the number of indicators used in your system increases arithmetically the number of potential parameter combinations increases geometrically. The total number of parameter combinations is, therefore, said to be subject to combinatorial explosion. For example, to optimize a system with 5 indicators each of which has 50 different parameter values you would have to cycle through 312 500 000 (50^5) possible parameter combinations. The only way you can expect to quickly solve such huge optimization problems in your lifetime is through the use of generic optimizers (e.g. OptEvolve for the TradeStation or NeuroShell Trader Professional).
Optimization of the time-period parameter of the cycle-based indicators like Stochastics permits to automatically adapt them to the cycles present in the market instead of using the default time-period values - which is the method originally used by the developer of Stochastics.
As a final note, try not to over optimize your indicators because majority of the professional forex traders use default indicator settings. You are looking for trading setups where the smart money will be acting (as opposed to the general investor public) so it doesn't make much practical sense to use indicator settings that hardly any professional forex trader is aware of.
2.3.4. Backtesting and Forwardtesting the System over Historical Price Data.
Backtesting allows to see how your system would have performed if it was run during some period in the past. You optimize indicator parameters using the price data in the backtesting period. It is crucial that the time period that you backtest your system on is representative of the currency pair that you wish to trade - it should include all types of market conditions (trending, rangebound) and it should be as recent as possible. Once you are comfortable with the performance of your system you forward test it - you run it on the out-of-sample price data (the price data that would be immediate future to the backtesting period). This way you can see if the system is able to perform likewise to the way it did during the backtesting. The closer the system's performance during the forward testing is to its performance during the backtesting the more robust the system and the more assured you can be that it will continue to trade in a similar manner during the real-time trading. You could also wish to trade your system on a forex demo account for some time before beginning to trade it with the real money.
Backtesting aids the trader or investor to determine if they are prepared psychologically for the live trading of a forex trading system. By examiningthe past performance of a system they can decide if the size of the drawdown, the number of the consecutive losses and the average duration of the trades are acceptable for them. For the complete list of the performance measures that you could wish to review before starting to trade with professionally-created mechanical trading systems please visit the forex signals page. In contrast to the mechanical trading systems the discretionary trading systems cannot be backtested because the discretionary traders cannot guarantee that they will react to a similar set of signals in the future in the same manner that they did in the past.
2.4. Implementation of a Forex Trading System.
There are two ways you can implement a forex trading system - either manually or automatically. Discretionary trading systems can only be followed by the manual placing of the trades. Mechanical trading systems are better followed though the use of automation.
If you are following a discretionary trading system you will be generally screening the currency markets for the signals that you have outlined in your checklist. The checklist is the description of the technical or fundamental trading signals that your trading system's rule-set operates on. The checklist could also contain the guidelines on how often you should check your forex charts/forex newswires for the signals (using the economic news calendar provided by the forex newswires as your fundamental signal timing tool); in contrast, the mechanical forex trading systems will be going through their own checklists with every second, 24 hours a day - which no human being can possibly do. Having a elaborate checklist will help you to be more disciplined in the application of your system. It is better to write your checklist in the form of the questionnaire. You can automate your search for some technical signals with the help of those forex charting packages which allow you to set up the sound or email/SMS alerts to notify you whenever the technical signal of your interest is generated (e.g. in Intellicharts). The forex bank reports and the forex newswires frequently issue mini reports of technical conditions on the market which most often are merely the "filled-in" versions of the same checklist.
Manual implementation of the mechanical signals is NOT recommended. Since the signals are generated by the computer you will always feel compelled to double-check them against you own experience - since no computer can model your thinking with 100% accuracy. This can lead to the delays and/or missing of some of the signals which can potentially undermine the system profitability, that rests on the principle of taking each signal exactly at the time it is generated. A lot is being said about the widespread lack of the discipline in taking the signals of the mechanical forex trading systems. This trouble can be easily overcome though the use of a reliable signal automation service. You solve all emotional troubles associated with the manual trading of the signals by simply automating this process. Elimination of the emotions from the trading through the use of the automated mechanical forex trading systems should explain their popularity amidst the multi-billion dollar hedge fund industry.
An crucial aspect of mechanical system trading is the monitoring of its real-time performance. The concealed market dynamics (a particular way of reacting to technical or fundamental signals that an important grouping of forex market participants shares - or, systematic mass investor impulsiveness) that your system has captured during the back-testing may be switching or might already have changed at the time you start to trade your system with the real money. The single way you can say that the market dynamics that you are focusing on have changed or not is to compare the real-time and the past system perofrmance. If the system continues to perform like it did on the backtesting then you can conclude that the market dynamics it targets have not yet changed. If you notice important deviations in such system performance measures like the maximum peak-to-valley drawdown, the average duration of trades, the average value of the profits/losses, the maximum number of consecutive winners/losses, it can signal that an important shift in market dynamics is taking place (e.g. a group of investment banks have modified their trading models). The fastest way to update your system to the changes in market dynamics is available for the neural network packages - which allow to retrain your model over the most recent price history. Retraining a neural network involves readjusting its matrix of weighs which allows it to stay attuned to the current market conditions. If mechanical trading systems suffer form the paradigm shifts on the market - the same can be said of the human mind (discretionary trading systmes) which tends to be very inflexible once a partciluar way of doing things (i.e. trading style) is ingrained in it.
2.5. Mastering System Trading.
To master system trading you ought have the patience to wait calmly for the entry or the exit signal from your own forex trading system and act only on them - irregardless of the technical or fundamental conditions that you see in-between these signals. It is no wonder why the best traders prefer to compare themselves to skilful predators when they describe their trading style:
Quote: "Top traders love the hunting metaphor to describe what they do. One of them, for example, claims he is like a cheetah. The cheetah can outrun any animal, but it still stalks its prey. It won't attack until it is right on top of its prey. In addition, the cheetah usually waits for a weak or lame animal to get close. Another top trader told me that he trades like a lion. He watches the herd for weeks until something other than his presence causes the herd to panic. When the herd panics, he then chases a weak or lame animal that appears most confused. The difference between an average hunter and a really skilled animal like the swift cheetah or the cunning lion is that the skilled hunter waits until the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor", from "The Ten Tasks of Top Trading" by Van K. Tharp.
Quote: "Much of the time, even professionals don't have a clear picture of what is going on, but they have learned to have the patience to wait for select, specific setups. You must learn to trade on only the most recognizable and reliable patterns." from the "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies".
The most important rule of systematic trading is to take each and every trading signal that your system generates. Only by taking all the signals at the time they are generated can you count on replicating the past performance of your system. If you have the slightest suspicion that you will not be able to take all the signals - either due to the timing of the signals or your busy schedule - you should arrange for the signals to be automatically traded.
At the end of the day, a forex trading system just like the money management system serves to protect yourself from your own destructive tendencies which very often mask themselves as the "well-meaning" hunches and gut responses. This doesn't mean that you shouldn't trust your instincts - only that you should base your trades on them only if you can eliminate emotions from your decisions. This is because a trading system is a method to profit from other traders' emotional instability, therefore, if you do not control your own emotions you will not be able to profit from any system. Removing the emotions from your manual trading can take years (!!!)- so it can be more practical and profitable to simply autotrade your system.
Even if you start your currency trading career by following a professionally created forex trading system you will receive full satisfaction from the trading - in terms of profit and self-actualization - only if you make and trade a successful system of your own. One of the best books which can help you to start this fascinating journey is "Mechanical Trading Systems: Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis" by Richard L. Weissman.
Quote: " In the meantime, it cannot be emphasized enough that, at the very least, genuine success in trading markets involves the adoption of a trading system. Without the discipline of such a system, the very best efforts are likely to be doomed to failure." Tony Plummer in his book "Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing".
There are no certainties in the forex trading, since the future will never be exactly the same as the past. There are only probabilities, which you can systematically put in your favour with the help of a established forex trading system.
There are two kinds of trading systems - the discretionary and the mechanical. Discretionary trading systems expect the trader to use his or her own judgement to ascertain the importance of each of the technical or fundamental signals (whose number is potentially infinite) that he or she gets. Mechanical trading systems operate on a fixed number of technical or fundamental signals without the participation of the trader. Discretionary trading systems require the perpetual application of creativity (flexibility of approach) from the trader in the understanding of the changing market conditions. Mechanical trading systems require the creativity from the trader only in the forex system development phase.
Discretionary forex trading systems are best employed by professional forex traders with a lot of experience (internalized practical market knowledge) against which they can determine the validity of any signal that they receive. These traders usually remember a large number of various signal patterns from the past (just like the master chessmen) that they can compare to the current market conditions, to make their analysis more objective. In essence, they use themselves (i.e. their brain) as their trading system - often very successfully - because human mind has the best pattern recognition power on the planet.
Starting currency traders are advised to begin by following professionally created mechanical forex trading systems. Most of these systems are sold-out in the form of the forex signals that are usually developed by experienced traders who have found a way to systemize their knowledge of the markets into a working strategy. At the same time, the beginning traders can work on building their own knowledge base of the forex market through the quality forex books, educational courses, bank reports and newswires on this subject -so that they can too, with time, create mechanical trading systems from their own insights and intuitions (using the forex charting packages which allow to do this).
Beginning without a proven mechanical forex trading system (that has positive mathematical expectation) drastically dilutes the chances of maintaining the capital. This is because any intuition or a hunch that the traders experience as a result of some newly gained knowledge of the forex market is likely to be overridden by one of the two emotional derivatives of their life-long programming towards the money - the greed and the fear. In other words, without exact adherence to an existing mechanical trading system the beginning trader will eventually succumb to his or her emotions. As a matter of fact, the only way the traders can acquire discipline in the early phases of their trading careers is by tight following the signals generated by a proven mechanical forex trading system.
Note: Neural Network Packages (e.g. NeuroShell) emulate the process of human learning and can be used to accumualte the knowledge of the past technical and/or fundamental signal patterns (just like the mind of professional forex traders does) for the purpose of the future currency price forecasting.
Quote: "A mechanical approach to the markets can be successful and this is backed up by the fact that approximately 80% of the $30 billion in the managed futures industry is traded by exact systematic methods", from the "The Ultimate Trading Guide" by John R. Hill, George Pruitt, and Lundy Hill.
2.2. Components of a Forex Trading System.
A regular forex trading system consists of two subsystems - the entry system and the exit system. These systems can operate on a different or the same set of inputs. The inputs can be technical or fundamental signals.A system consists of a number of rules which interpret the signals that it receives. The entry system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the positions should be opened. The exit system evaluates the signals to determine if and at which level the open positions should be closed.
The propose of an entry system is to find market points which allow to open positions with high potential reward and low potential risk (high reward-to-risk ratio). The risk is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying opposite to the entry direction (above entry for sell and below entry for buy). The reward is defined as the pip distance from the entry price to the next support or resistance level lying in the direction of the entry (above entry for buy and below entry for sell). It is generally advised that the traders accept only the trades with the reward-to-risk ratio of over 2 (e.g. risk=60 pips, reward=130 pips). All the same, depending on the accuracy of a trading system (i.e. the percentage of the winning trades of all the past trades) this requirement might be shifted to a lower or a higher value without sacrificing the profitability of the system. This is because the true measure of the long term profitability of a forex trading system is neither the average per-trade reward-to-risk ratio nor the accuracy of the system but the combination of these two measures which is calculated as the mathematical expectation of a trading system. In the absence of the accuracy measure of a trading system (as is the case with some discretionary trading systems) - the trader ought strive to find entries with the greatest possible reward-to-risk ratio.
Note: Elliott wave analysis allows to find entries with extremely high reward-to-risk ratios (e.g. just check some of reports on MTPredictor's site). It is worth noting that MTPredictor automatically calculates the reward-to-risk ratios and helps to find optimum entry points based on these ratios. Some Elliot wave software developers (e.g. Advanced Get) also supply their subscribers with detailed Elliott wave trading plans.
The aim of an exit system is to protect the capital base and the unrealized profits. The capital base is shielded by ensuring that the trades are exited with a fixed loss when the reasons for holding them are no longer valid. This is done by triggering a stop-loss order on your forex brokerage account when the price crosses the level which defined your risk at the entry. If you are a discretionary trader, forcing yourself to place the slop-loss on each trade and to stick to it no matter what will make you very selective about your entries - which ought increase your profitability. The unrealized profits are protected either by a take-profit order which is triggered on your brokerage account when the price reaches the level which defined your profit at the entry or with the help of the trailing stop-loss which gradually locks in more profits as the price moves in your favour. In fact, the trailing stop-loss exit can be more suitable than the fixed take-profit exit if you wish to profit from the extending "character" of some impulse waves. In such a event the trailing stop-loss can be placed just a few pips opposite to the trendline which defines impulse wave. There is one more type of exit which can be used to protect the trader from missing trading opportunities - the time exit. A time exit is triggered if a trade hasn't reached either its stop-loss or take-profit level in the specified period of time. Exiting such trades reduces the chances that the capital will be tied up when better opportunities appear on the other currency pairs.
Note: Most forex newswires (e.g. Marketnews) are a great source of real-time information on the location of the major support and resistance levels and clusters of large orders that are watched by professional forex traders and which can be used to manually update the position of your trailing stop-loss.
2.3. Development of a Currency Trading System.
Making a mechanical forex trading system involves a number of steps: 1) Selecting the inputs for the trading system - technical analysis or fundamental analysis tools which will generate the signals for the system; 2) Developing the rule-set which will operate on these signals; 3) Optimizing the parameters of the analysis tools used to produce the signals; 4) Backtesting and forwardtesting the system over historical price data. Each of these steps is covered in more detail below:
2.3.1. Selecting the Inputs for the Trading System
It is important to base your selection of inputs to the system on a sensible premise about the way the currency markets operate. As an example, you can use 200-day moving average to determine if the market is in a long-term up or down trend because a large proportion of professional forex traders use this technical tool to measure market trendiness. It is also better to combine technical analysis tools of different type and scale because this increases the chances of finding high-probability entry points (those that are likely to be followed by sharp currency price moves in your favour), which should, in turn, contribute to the overall system accuracy.
If you use technical tools only on the higher time-frame charts like the daily or the weekly charts this will increase the duration of the trades and the time periods out of the market - because the signals will take longer to form. Either of these outcomes can have detrimental impact on the trader and investor morale during the inevitable losing streaks as is shown by our forex trading simulator (Please note: The size of this page is 0,6 Mbs and it requires that you have Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your browser). which can last longer than they are naturally prepared to wait. This makes it important to focus on lower time-frame charts (e.g. hourly charts) for signal generation which will lead to shorter trade durations and, consequently, to quicker recoveries from the drawdowns. Shorter trade durations can also help to the trader to defeat the temptation to overtrade because he or she can expect to see the next entry signal in the next couple of days - not in the next couple of weeks.
Quote: "Your freedom to choose your time-frame is too valuable to lose. Investors and margined speculators, on the other hand, can choose their own time-frames. This is one of their positional advantages, to use a favourite notion of Larry Hite* , one of the founders of Mint Investment Corp* - one of the largest of the futures fund operators. Investors and speculators can choose. Obviously it makes sense to choose time frames which match any natural rhythms that can be discerned in the currency markets." John Percival in his book "The Way of the Dollar".
Note: If you are using the Elliott Wave analysis your average holding period will depend on the degree of the impulse or corrective waves that you are trading.
Choosing which fundamental factors are best for your forex trading system (e.g. as inputs to your neural network) can be very hard because the effect of various economic indicators on the currency prices changes with time. In other words, the strength of correlation between the price of a currency pair and the fundamental factors relevant to it is not fixed (even with interest rate differentials). In contrast, the relationship between the price patterns (especially the classical price patterns) and trader psychology (the driving force behind most important price moves) remains fairly stable over the years. This is the reason why the forex traders are encouraged to dedicate most of their efforts to building trading systems around the technical analysis.
Another all-important question is the time horizon of the prediction that the trader is trying to make with his system. Better not to try to forecast currency prices too far into the future. This is because the number and the complexity of interaction of various technical and fundamental factors rises geometrically with each trading day. It is, therefore, best to "leave" this task to high-end investment banks and houses which alone have the capacity to perform the necessary calculations inherent in longer-term currency course forecasting. It is more practical for the typical currency trader to concentrate on capturing the so-called "knee-jerk" market reactions driven by crowd emotionalism through the analysis of the current technical or fundamental conditions.
Quote: "Rule 5: Be prepared for anything don't try to predict what will happen or when. Investing is a skill, not a science. The Zen swordsman dicsniplines body and mind to counter any blow spontaneously; he does not anticipate the moves of an opponent, for that impedes his ability to react. Likewise, professional investors know they cannot control the real estate or stock market, let alone the global economy. Instead, they train themselves to be financially intelligent, to think confidently and creatively when opportunities or problems arise." one of the The Seven Rules of Investing given in Robert Kiyosaki's book "You Can Choose to Be Rich".
You should also try not to include too many indicators (over 12) in your forex trading system. This is because probability that the system will perform like it did in the past diminishes as you add more indicators to your system. As a rule, the larger the number of indicators in your system the longer the period of historical currency price data you need to backtest the system on.
Note: There is no necessity to learn all the available indicators and technical analysis methods before you can start creating your own robust trading systems. It is usually enough to master just a few "basic" technical indicators and formations to start combining them to identify high probability entry and exit points. The fundamental and technical reports issues by the investment banks are one of the best sources of information on which technical and/or fundamental signals are watched by the professional trading community that you can include in your forex trading system. In the long run it is best to stick to a sound forex trading strategy, that has high probability of being profitable in the long-run, than to dissipate your capital among a variety of "promising" methods.
2.3.2. Developing the Rule-Set which will Operate on the Signals
You can create these rules based on your observation of how the prices move in relation to various technical and fundamental indicators. For example, you might notice that currency prices tend to resume trending behaviour after they correct toward and touch 200-day moving average. You can use this observance to formulate a rule which will enter the markets when the prices bounce off from the 200-day moving average. You could also notice that the prices tend to stop trending when they touch the outer daily Bollinger bands. You can use this information to create a rule which will exit the trades once the prices penetrate the outer daily Bollinger Band. Because making rule-sets for mechanical trading systems forces you to quantify your insights about the market this practice aids to clarify them.
The rule-set of a forex trading system is in essence the clarified version of the weighing algorithms that you naturally create in your mind as you learn the technical and fundamental analysis and observe the price action. I say "weighing" because most of the technical rules are transcribed in your mind as fuzzy patterns (e.g. "The longer the shadows of a doji the more likely the reversal" or "The steeper the trendline - the more bullish or bearish the market sentiment."). When you make the trading system, you transfer your knowledge to the computer in the form that can be understood by it. Admittedly, the quality of the computerized model very often will fall short of the actual mental model that you keep in your head. Nevertheless, the real advantage of the "mechanicizing" your market knowledge is the power to objectively determine the validity of your trading ideas by the process of the backtesting. It should be noted that the closest the computers approach to simulating the complexity of human comprehension of the market patterns is in the neural network packages.
Neural network packages can be especially effective if you wish to model your way of weighing the strength of support or resistance levels. For example, if you believe that fibonacci retracements are more reliable entry points if they are confirmed by reversal candlestick patterns and/or RSI divergence you can "ask" a neural network to search for past occurrences of this pattern combination and determine the actual numeric weight that should be placed on each of these technical signals for the entry or exit to occur. This process is very advantageous because it allows the computer to extend your natural pattern recognition ability by perfecting (or objectifying) the weights associated with each technical input/signal. This way you can objectively measure the strength or the beauty of the technical setups that you encounter in your trading (e.g. the resultant model might require the position to be opened if the total sum of signal weighs is bigger than 0,5 where a reversal candlestick signal is "worth" 0,15, fibonacci retracement is "worth" 0,3 and the RSI divergence is "worth" 0,45). In essence, your forex trading system is the description of how beautiful your trading setups should be, where "beauty" is defined as the convergence of confirming signals from different type and/or scale technical analysis tools. Advanced users of the neural networks can go even further by tying the position size (within the maximum percentage value set by their money management system) to the strength or the beauty of the technical setup. If done decently this practice will allow them to make the most of the best trading opportunities while simultaneously reducing the exposure on the less promising setups.
Meta4: An fascinating parallel to weighing the signals in order to determine if the position should be taken or not is the way people fall in love. Each individual carries a certain number of unconscious or semi-conscious qualifiers that "describe" in more or less fuzzy terms the appearance, the character, the temperament of their likely mate. When you meet the person who posses enough of these traits (i.e. above some "threshold" or unconscious minimum) the cascade of the confirming signals sets your mind off into the love state. A similar process occurs in the mind of discretionary trader when the market action through all of its technical and/or fundamental signals (i.e. "when all the pieces fit") activates the hunch or intuition response from him or her. If you compare the brain of a discretionary trader to a neural network the hunch finds its direct expression in the output neuron. The similarity between the process of falling in love and experiencing a hunch is probably behind such market advices as "do not marry your trades" or "do not fall in love with your trades". To stretch the similarity further we can compare a stop-loss order to the practice employed by some of the married couples called the "boundary". The boundary is the some form of behaviour unacceptable to the other spouse which if violated will lead to the end of relationship. Yet another analogue is between adding to a losing position and trying to win a favour of an unloving partner - the more you invest the harder it is to let go and the more likely you are to end up destroyed financially (emotionally in the relationships). As a final comparison the neural networks allow to model the connections among the ideas in the human mind in a similar way that a website through all its external and internal links permits to express the specific mental idea-network of its creator.
Quote: "I use all forms of technical analysis, but interpret them through gut feel. I do not believe in mathematical systems that always approach markets in the same way. Using myself as the "system," I constantly change the input to achieve the same output—profit!", Mark Weinstein in Jack D. Schwager's book "Market Wizards".
Note: It should be marked that the effectiveness of your model will always be only as good as the inputs that you give or "feed" to it (as someone said - "Garbage in, garbage out"). This is because computers merely extend your pattern recognition ability and cannot be relied upon to think up a winning system on their own - if this was false, the markets would have been cornered long ago by the guy with the most powerful computer.
2.3.3. Optimizing the Parameters of the Analysis Tools used to Produce the Signals
Some forex charting packages (e.g. TradeStation) permit to optimize the parameters of the technical indicators that you use in your forex trading system. Optimization allows to find parameter values of your indicators that result in the biggest profit (most frequently used measure of system performance in optimization) from the trading system over the past data. An good example of the optimization is looking for the best time-period parameters for a two-moving-averages crossover system. Commonly the periods of two moving averages are stepped from 1 to 50 in steps of 1 and the trading results for each of around 250 moving average combinations are recorded and then sorted to find the most profitable combination. Such process of going though all possible parameter combinations is called brute force optimization. As the number of indicators used in your system increases arithmetically the number of potential parameter combinations increases geometrically. The total number of parameter combinations is, therefore, said to be subject to combinatorial explosion. For example, to optimize a system with 5 indicators each of which has 50 different parameter values you would have to cycle through 312 500 000 (50^5) possible parameter combinations. The only way you can expect to quickly solve such huge optimization problems in your lifetime is through the use of generic optimizers (e.g. OptEvolve for the TradeStation or NeuroShell Trader Professional).
Optimization of the time-period parameter of the cycle-based indicators like Stochastics permits to automatically adapt them to the cycles present in the market instead of using the default time-period values - which is the method originally used by the developer of Stochastics.
As a final note, try not to over optimize your indicators because majority of the professional forex traders use default indicator settings. You are looking for trading setups where the smart money will be acting (as opposed to the general investor public) so it doesn't make much practical sense to use indicator settings that hardly any professional forex trader is aware of.
2.3.4. Backtesting and Forwardtesting the System over Historical Price Data.
Backtesting allows to see how your system would have performed if it was run during some period in the past. You optimize indicator parameters using the price data in the backtesting period. It is crucial that the time period that you backtest your system on is representative of the currency pair that you wish to trade - it should include all types of market conditions (trending, rangebound) and it should be as recent as possible. Once you are comfortable with the performance of your system you forward test it - you run it on the out-of-sample price data (the price data that would be immediate future to the backtesting period). This way you can see if the system is able to perform likewise to the way it did during the backtesting. The closer the system's performance during the forward testing is to its performance during the backtesting the more robust the system and the more assured you can be that it will continue to trade in a similar manner during the real-time trading. You could also wish to trade your system on a forex demo account for some time before beginning to trade it with the real money.
Backtesting aids the trader or investor to determine if they are prepared psychologically for the live trading of a forex trading system. By examiningthe past performance of a system they can decide if the size of the drawdown, the number of the consecutive losses and the average duration of the trades are acceptable for them. For the complete list of the performance measures that you could wish to review before starting to trade with professionally-created mechanical trading systems please visit the forex signals page. In contrast to the mechanical trading systems the discretionary trading systems cannot be backtested because the discretionary traders cannot guarantee that they will react to a similar set of signals in the future in the same manner that they did in the past.
2.4. Implementation of a Forex Trading System.
There are two ways you can implement a forex trading system - either manually or automatically. Discretionary trading systems can only be followed by the manual placing of the trades. Mechanical trading systems are better followed though the use of automation.
If you are following a discretionary trading system you will be generally screening the currency markets for the signals that you have outlined in your checklist. The checklist is the description of the technical or fundamental trading signals that your trading system's rule-set operates on. The checklist could also contain the guidelines on how often you should check your forex charts/forex newswires for the signals (using the economic news calendar provided by the forex newswires as your fundamental signal timing tool); in contrast, the mechanical forex trading systems will be going through their own checklists with every second, 24 hours a day - which no human being can possibly do. Having a elaborate checklist will help you to be more disciplined in the application of your system. It is better to write your checklist in the form of the questionnaire. You can automate your search for some technical signals with the help of those forex charting packages which allow you to set up the sound or email/SMS alerts to notify you whenever the technical signal of your interest is generated (e.g. in Intellicharts). The forex bank reports and the forex newswires frequently issue mini reports of technical conditions on the market which most often are merely the "filled-in" versions of the same checklist.
Manual implementation of the mechanical signals is NOT recommended. Since the signals are generated by the computer you will always feel compelled to double-check them against you own experience - since no computer can model your thinking with 100% accuracy. This can lead to the delays and/or missing of some of the signals which can potentially undermine the system profitability, that rests on the principle of taking each signal exactly at the time it is generated. A lot is being said about the widespread lack of the discipline in taking the signals of the mechanical forex trading systems. This trouble can be easily overcome though the use of a reliable signal automation service. You solve all emotional troubles associated with the manual trading of the signals by simply automating this process. Elimination of the emotions from the trading through the use of the automated mechanical forex trading systems should explain their popularity amidst the multi-billion dollar hedge fund industry.
An crucial aspect of mechanical system trading is the monitoring of its real-time performance. The concealed market dynamics (a particular way of reacting to technical or fundamental signals that an important grouping of forex market participants shares - or, systematic mass investor impulsiveness) that your system has captured during the back-testing may be switching or might already have changed at the time you start to trade your system with the real money. The single way you can say that the market dynamics that you are focusing on have changed or not is to compare the real-time and the past system perofrmance. If the system continues to perform like it did on the backtesting then you can conclude that the market dynamics it targets have not yet changed. If you notice important deviations in such system performance measures like the maximum peak-to-valley drawdown, the average duration of trades, the average value of the profits/losses, the maximum number of consecutive winners/losses, it can signal that an important shift in market dynamics is taking place (e.g. a group of investment banks have modified their trading models). The fastest way to update your system to the changes in market dynamics is available for the neural network packages - which allow to retrain your model over the most recent price history. Retraining a neural network involves readjusting its matrix of weighs which allows it to stay attuned to the current market conditions. If mechanical trading systems suffer form the paradigm shifts on the market - the same can be said of the human mind (discretionary trading systmes) which tends to be very inflexible once a partciluar way of doing things (i.e. trading style) is ingrained in it.
2.5. Mastering System Trading.
To master system trading you ought have the patience to wait calmly for the entry or the exit signal from your own forex trading system and act only on them - irregardless of the technical or fundamental conditions that you see in-between these signals. It is no wonder why the best traders prefer to compare themselves to skilful predators when they describe their trading style:
Quote: "Top traders love the hunting metaphor to describe what they do. One of them, for example, claims he is like a cheetah. The cheetah can outrun any animal, but it still stalks its prey. It won't attack until it is right on top of its prey. In addition, the cheetah usually waits for a weak or lame animal to get close. Another top trader told me that he trades like a lion. He watches the herd for weeks until something other than his presence causes the herd to panic. When the herd panics, he then chases a weak or lame animal that appears most confused. The difference between an average hunter and a really skilled animal like the swift cheetah or the cunning lion is that the skilled hunter waits until the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor", from "The Ten Tasks of Top Trading" by Van K. Tharp.
Quote: "Much of the time, even professionals don't have a clear picture of what is going on, but they have learned to have the patience to wait for select, specific setups. You must learn to trade on only the most recognizable and reliable patterns." from the "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies".
The most important rule of systematic trading is to take each and every trading signal that your system generates. Only by taking all the signals at the time they are generated can you count on replicating the past performance of your system. If you have the slightest suspicion that you will not be able to take all the signals - either due to the timing of the signals or your busy schedule - you should arrange for the signals to be automatically traded.
At the end of the day, a forex trading system just like the money management system serves to protect yourself from your own destructive tendencies which very often mask themselves as the "well-meaning" hunches and gut responses. This doesn't mean that you shouldn't trust your instincts - only that you should base your trades on them only if you can eliminate emotions from your decisions. This is because a trading system is a method to profit from other traders' emotional instability, therefore, if you do not control your own emotions you will not be able to profit from any system. Removing the emotions from your manual trading can take years (!!!)- so it can be more practical and profitable to simply autotrade your system.
Even if you start your currency trading career by following a professionally created forex trading system you will receive full satisfaction from the trading - in terms of profit and self-actualization - only if you make and trade a successful system of your own. One of the best books which can help you to start this fascinating journey is "Mechanical Trading Systems: Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis" by Richard L. Weissman.
Quote: " In the meantime, it cannot be emphasized enough that, at the very least, genuine success in trading markets involves the adoption of a trading system. Without the discipline of such a system, the very best efforts are likely to be doomed to failure." Tony Plummer in his book "Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing".
There are no certainties in the forex trading, since the future will never be exactly the same as the past. There are only probabilities, which you can systematically put in your favour with the help of a established forex trading system.
13 SECRETS THAT GENERATED 992 PIPS NET PROFIT IN 15 FOREX TRADING DAYS
There is no hype in this headline. This is the absolute truth. The following 13 secrets generated 992 pips net profits for me in 15 trading days.
1 do not over expose your account .maintain an account exposure of between 10% and 30%.
2 Always trust god to find and join the trend early. Always learn to test the strength of the trend with the ADX.
3 Understand your best entry and exit points using pivot points and/or fibonnacci retracements
4 Understand the key japanese candlesticks Reversal patterns.
5 Know when the market is down or when the trend is weak and trade accordingly or stay away.
6 Only use take profit according to predetermined market potential.
7 Buy in oversold markets: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this
8 sell in overbought market: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this.
9 Never entertain fear even when the market moves against you. If you have a good trading system., it will surely come back in your favour.
10 Do not be greedy: Show contentment in all things and this demon will be far from you.
11 Do not over trade: Learn to draw a line between over trading and fear.
12 Always pray before making a trading decision: There is always a guiding light from god if only you will trust him.
!3 Rely on the holy spirit for guidance. He is very dependable and will never leave noy forsake you if you surrender the battle to him.
Send a blank e mail to wealthklub@yahoo.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger
1 do not over expose your account .maintain an account exposure of between 10% and 30%.
2 Always trust god to find and join the trend early. Always learn to test the strength of the trend with the ADX.
3 Understand your best entry and exit points using pivot points and/or fibonnacci retracements
4 Understand the key japanese candlesticks Reversal patterns.
5 Know when the market is down or when the trend is weak and trade accordingly or stay away.
6 Only use take profit according to predetermined market potential.
7 Buy in oversold markets: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this
8 sell in overbought market: stochastic oscilliator and RSI can be used in determining this.
9 Never entertain fear even when the market moves against you. If you have a good trading system., it will surely come back in your favour.
10 Do not be greedy: Show contentment in all things and this demon will be far from you.
11 Do not over trade: Learn to draw a line between over trading and fear.
12 Always pray before making a trading decision: There is always a guiding light from god if only you will trust him.
!3 Rely on the holy spirit for guidance. He is very dependable and will never leave noy forsake you if you surrender the battle to him.
Send a blank e mail to wealthklub@yahoo.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
FOREX Fundamental Analysis
Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.
Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.
Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.
Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.
There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.
There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.
Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.
Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.
International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.
The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.
In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.
Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.
Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.
Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.
There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.
There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.
Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.
Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.
International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.
The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.
In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.
Ways to Read Forex Chart
If you are planning to trade in currency then you should know the different ways of reading the forex chart. Due to this reason you should try to gain the knowledge about reading the charts. If you know this then you would be able to earn huge profits in short duration of time. You would find that the experienced trader would always take the proper training before entering into the market of forex. If you are a learner then you should always start the trade with the nominal amount. You should no invest huge amount at a particular point of time.
If you want to learn the ways of reading the forex chart then you can purchase this software that would provide you required knowledge about the forex market. This software would aid you to keep the track of the money that you invest in this market and it would also keep the track of your time that you spend in this market. This software would help you to keep a track of the amount that you have invested in the firm. This software is handy. If you are interested to become a forex trading pro then you should try to take the maximum use of this software. If you use this software then you chart using this software then you would get the perfect knowledge about the forex trading that is offered by the forex market.
Currency trading market is considered to the largest market in the whole world and it one of the busiest markets. You would have problem of keeping the track of the forex market. You would be able to keep the track of the various trends that are prevailing in the market. if you are using the this software as a tool then you should study the changes that are taking place in the forex market. The knowledge that you have gain would aid you to trade in the market.
If you want to install this software then you need to explore yourself to net. You can use different trends and pattern of the forex chart. You can use the special tools that can be generated in short duration of time. You can use this tool to examine the software that you are using. The forex charts would help the trader to take the decisions about the market in which you are dealing. Forex charting software would provide relief to the people that want to become successful and want to get the deal that they want. There are different methods that can help you to the knowledge that you want to have. This would help you to make the future predictions about the forex market. This would help in charting the different types of software. There are various types of software in the market. You need to select the software as per your needs and requirements. You need to be careful in selecting the software for your deal.
If you want to learn the ways of reading the forex chart then you can purchase this software that would provide you required knowledge about the forex market. This software would aid you to keep the track of the money that you invest in this market and it would also keep the track of your time that you spend in this market. This software would help you to keep a track of the amount that you have invested in the firm. This software is handy. If you are interested to become a forex trading pro then you should try to take the maximum use of this software. If you use this software then you chart using this software then you would get the perfect knowledge about the forex trading that is offered by the forex market.
Currency trading market is considered to the largest market in the whole world and it one of the busiest markets. You would have problem of keeping the track of the forex market. You would be able to keep the track of the various trends that are prevailing in the market. if you are using the this software as a tool then you should study the changes that are taking place in the forex market. The knowledge that you have gain would aid you to trade in the market.
If you want to install this software then you need to explore yourself to net. You can use different trends and pattern of the forex chart. You can use the special tools that can be generated in short duration of time. You can use this tool to examine the software that you are using. The forex charts would help the trader to take the decisions about the market in which you are dealing. Forex charting software would provide relief to the people that want to become successful and want to get the deal that they want. There are different methods that can help you to the knowledge that you want to have. This would help you to make the future predictions about the forex market. This would help in charting the different types of software. There are various types of software in the market. You need to select the software as per your needs and requirements. You need to be careful in selecting the software for your deal.
Forex Signal Providers, Who Really Need Them?
Forex Signal provider is a professional trader who is dedicated to monitoring the market closely and is able to read the price action and can predict its future move. Based on this prediction, he can confidently generates entry signals and send it to his subscribers.
He apply his technical analysis experience in analyzing the price action on the charts to determine the proper entry price, stop loss price and the take profit price, in order to generate a winning trade with high probability.
What a signal provider do for you?
Most of forex signal providers works mostly on EUR/USD currency pair, this is may because it's the pair which constitutes about 40% of the entire forex market movement alone. Also this pair has the less spread among the other currency pairs, so it's very suitable for scalpers and short term traders (intraday traders).
When a Forex signal provider generates an entry signal and send it to his subscribers, he only send the prices' numbers for entry/stop loss/take profit values. He does not tell any information about his analytical methods which led to these values. So, His service does not add any experience to his subscribers at all, the subscriber trader only have the option to open a trading position based upon this signal or not.
That means that the trader should at least has a reasonable level of experience about technical analysis in order to have the ability to evaluate the provided entry signals himself and take the proper decision, so he uses the provided signal just as complementary information which assist his trading decision.
The common mistake which many novice traders fall in is blindly following the provided entry forex signal without even trying to evaluate it themselves. This make them can't take his responsibility for his trading decision, thus when the trade become a loser he blame the signal provider.
However, the signal provider services are very suitable for those traders who work part time, and do not have the advantage of monitoring the market all the day in order to generate their own signals. In such a case, they utilizes these services just as a timing for entering the market, these signals providers give them the exact time to enter and exit the market without the need to send a lot of time waiting these times in front of the screen.
Final note:
As a trader, you should not relay completely on signal provider service. When you generate your own signals, you combine several trading indicators like trend lines, moving average, stochastic, in order to get a high probable trade signal. Meanwhile, providers might choose to employ just one indicator in order to generate their signals, which may not be 100% accurate. This justifies why you should compare and contrast signals between one another and for the movement of the currency price.
He apply his technical analysis experience in analyzing the price action on the charts to determine the proper entry price, stop loss price and the take profit price, in order to generate a winning trade with high probability.
What a signal provider do for you?
Most of forex signal providers works mostly on EUR/USD currency pair, this is may because it's the pair which constitutes about 40% of the entire forex market movement alone. Also this pair has the less spread among the other currency pairs, so it's very suitable for scalpers and short term traders (intraday traders).
When a Forex signal provider generates an entry signal and send it to his subscribers, he only send the prices' numbers for entry/stop loss/take profit values. He does not tell any information about his analytical methods which led to these values. So, His service does not add any experience to his subscribers at all, the subscriber trader only have the option to open a trading position based upon this signal or not.
That means that the trader should at least has a reasonable level of experience about technical analysis in order to have the ability to evaluate the provided entry signals himself and take the proper decision, so he uses the provided signal just as complementary information which assist his trading decision.
The common mistake which many novice traders fall in is blindly following the provided entry forex signal without even trying to evaluate it themselves. This make them can't take his responsibility for his trading decision, thus when the trade become a loser he blame the signal provider.
However, the signal provider services are very suitable for those traders who work part time, and do not have the advantage of monitoring the market all the day in order to generate their own signals. In such a case, they utilizes these services just as a timing for entering the market, these signals providers give them the exact time to enter and exit the market without the need to send a lot of time waiting these times in front of the screen.
Final note:
As a trader, you should not relay completely on signal provider service. When you generate your own signals, you combine several trading indicators like trend lines, moving average, stochastic, in order to get a high probable trade signal. Meanwhile, providers might choose to employ just one indicator in order to generate their signals, which may not be 100% accurate. This justifies why you should compare and contrast signals between one another and for the movement of the currency price.
8 FOREX TRADING MISTAKES THAT COULD RESULT TO MARGIN CALL
1 IGNORANT OF NEWS EVENTS
Most ignorant technical traders often have there trading account badly damaged if not wiped out during news event releases. I therefore recommend that you get familiar with economic calendars even if you do not like trading them.
2 OVER TRADING.
Most ignorant traders often over trade in any of the following ways: opening more positions than they should, not knowing when they have exceeded there trading limits. I recommend trading only one position at a time as a beginner.
3 NO TRADING SYSTEM
One of the worst things that can happen to a trader is to chase after pips or dollars without a proven system. To succeed in trading you need a proven and tested decent trading system.
4 NO TRADING PLAN
A plan gives you the road map to your destination. When you have no plan, you will surely not know when you miss the way.
5 NOT KNOWING WHERE TO PLACE STOP LOSS ORDER And have high probability for profits
It is one thing to place stop loss orders, it is another thing to know where to place them in order to avoid being stopped out before price resumes in your analyzed irend and entry direction.
6 NOT KNOWING HOW TO MONITOR MARGIN ACCOUNT.
If you do not know when your account is running into margin call, certainly you will not know when to cut your losses..
7 NOT KNOWING HOW TO IDENTIFY A TREND AND RIDE WITH IT.
You trading system should be able to identify new market trends and , trend corrections and trend reversal.
8 ALLOWING MAXIMUM DRAW DOWN ON AN ACCOUNT
When your account is drawn down by say 50% in one trade, you should know that it will not take you a profit of 50% to return to your previous balance. It will rather take you 100% profit in your remaining balance before the account was drawn down.
The above 8 mistakes put together can result in a margin call.
Send a blank e mail to wealthklub@yahoo.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger
Most ignorant technical traders often have there trading account badly damaged if not wiped out during news event releases. I therefore recommend that you get familiar with economic calendars even if you do not like trading them.
2 OVER TRADING.
Most ignorant traders often over trade in any of the following ways: opening more positions than they should, not knowing when they have exceeded there trading limits. I recommend trading only one position at a time as a beginner.
3 NO TRADING SYSTEM
One of the worst things that can happen to a trader is to chase after pips or dollars without a proven system. To succeed in trading you need a proven and tested decent trading system.
4 NO TRADING PLAN
A plan gives you the road map to your destination. When you have no plan, you will surely not know when you miss the way.
5 NOT KNOWING WHERE TO PLACE STOP LOSS ORDER And have high probability for profits
It is one thing to place stop loss orders, it is another thing to know where to place them in order to avoid being stopped out before price resumes in your analyzed irend and entry direction.
6 NOT KNOWING HOW TO MONITOR MARGIN ACCOUNT.
If you do not know when your account is running into margin call, certainly you will not know when to cut your losses..
7 NOT KNOWING HOW TO IDENTIFY A TREND AND RIDE WITH IT.
You trading system should be able to identify new market trends and , trend corrections and trend reversal.
8 ALLOWING MAXIMUM DRAW DOWN ON AN ACCOUNT
When your account is drawn down by say 50% in one trade, you should know that it will not take you a profit of 50% to return to your previous balance. It will rather take you 100% profit in your remaining balance before the account was drawn down.
The above 8 mistakes put together can result in a margin call.
Send a blank e mail to wealthklub@yahoo.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it to Get a free report on a powerful forex trading system that generates an average of 500 pips($5000 on a standard account) monthly plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
Traders· fondly refer to the MACD as "the mac-dee." The acronym stands for "moving average convergence-divergence" (say that fast three times!). Multifaceted, the MACD not only acts as an indicator, it also plays the role of an oscillator. Developed by Gerald Appel, publisher of Systems and Forecasts, the MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator/oscillator that illustrates the relationship between the 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages of an equity's price pattern. A 9-day exponential moving average, referred to as the "signal line," overlays the MACD and indicates buy/sell setups.
Since the MACD is a "lagging" indicator, meaning it delivers signals from information that's already taken place (the S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures are "leading" indicators), it is best used in strongly rending markets. Because the traditional MACD usually arrives a bit late to the party (read: trend reversal), short-term traders may leave money on the table by adhering strictly to its signals. To obtain faster signals, I recommend using the MACD histogram, available on most charting programs. The MACD Histogram (MACD-H) represents the difference between the MACD and its 9-day exponential MA. Don't worry if your brain tangles over that one. Your charting program understands it! Just insert it on your chart, above the volume indicator. The MACD-H will snake above and below its zero line, moving into positive (above zero) or negative (below zero) territory.
MACD-H signals are:
Crossovers. Buy signal (bullish) equals when the MACD-H rises above its zero line. Sell signal (bearish) equals when the MACD-H tumbles below the zero line.
Overbought/oversold indicators. As an overbought/oversold oscillator, when the MACD-H rises to the top of its scale and resembles a majestic mountain, the stock may. be overbought and ready to pullback. When the MACD-H edges below the zero line and digs a deep scoop to the downside, the stock is oversold. WQen the histogram bars shorten and edge back up, the stock should be preparing to bounce.Fun to do: Use a MACD-H on a weekly chart to generate a long-term buy/sell signal. Then, go to a daily chart of the same stock, and only trade in the direction of that longer-term signal.
Live Forex Mentor
There is nothing that the market for an experienced tutor. Have you ever tried to learn from a book or e-commerce site? - Not very productive, right? That is why education we offer our customers is Forex live, not pre-recorded, which is to be face to face with his teacher and looks at the currency market action.You you can ask the mentor live trade all questions you want during the training for free. We believe that to learn the days of the market, live supervision is an absolute necessity. Since it is difficult for a successful business in a new business venture with traders Because orientation may have a difficult time making ends meet. That is why we put much effort in our program for training. Since each of our customers have different levels of trading experience, to live a Forex trading mentor can answer more accurately the individual cases and that accelerates the learning curve for global customers. Students will also be able to follow the trainers thought more clearly and understand the different Forex strategies that are used in a live market.
FOREX TOOLBOX
SigmaForex operators to offer Premium Forex Trading Tools that are useful for advanced beginners and professionals Traders. The main technical and analysts working in developing these resources to meet its customers the highest level of satisfaction.
There are a number of tools in the toolbox and change the operator and one of the most important is the Forex chart. In its simplest form, the chart Forex chart of the performance of a currency pair over the period. Reading Forex chart is at the heart of any activity, and therefore it is important to be able to read and understand what they mean.
A chart is plotted as the change of a single currency pair EUR / USD AUD / CAD, and shows the movement of currencies against each other over time. For example, EUR / USD chart shows how the euro and the dollar has moved against each other during the period for which the table is drawn up.
Schedule at the bottom of the table, which may, for example, be divided into 15 minutes, one hour per day, week or longer period of time. Going up the right of the map is a phase-values, which are typically lasts for just under a little more than the upper and lower price reached during that period. For example, EUR / USD chart 1,2534-1,2564 run up to the May values.
A Forex chart is useful because it gives a very clear and easy to read under the covers of a pair of currencies and you can see at a glance whether a currency is strengthening or weakening of the act, you can. Dialog table is as important as the short period of time can help you see the very low, and trends over a longer period to help you identify trends in the longer term.
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